Friday, October 15, 2021

D.A. Krasner Lays Some Bogus Crime Stats On City Council

By Ralph Cipriano

At a Wednesday hearing before the City Council's Special Committee On Gun Violence Prevention, District Attorney Larry Krasner used deceptive rhetoric and bogus crime stats to cover up just how bad the record of his office is when it comes to prosecuting gun crimes.

Before Krasner spoke to council members, Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw laid out some damning statistics that documented Krasner's failures.

The graph that the cops put up on the screen looked like an airplane crash. 

"So while our arrests have been increasing the convictions have been steadily decreasing," Outlaw explained.

The numbers told the story.

In 2015, when Seth Williams was D.A., the conviction rate for the D.A.'s office when it came to prosecuting gun crimes was 73%. 

In 2018, the first year Krasner took office, that conviction rate for prosecuting gun crimes dropped to 61%.

Last year, under Krasner, the conviction rate for gun crimes dropped again, all the way down to 49%. 

So far this year, the D.A.'s conviction rate for gun crimes under Krasner has plummeted to an alarming 35%. 

Get the picture? 

As more and more people are getting shot and killed in Philadelphia, Krasner's office is in a free fall when it comes to convicting the criminals who are are packing guns out on the street. 

And what is Krasner's response to his abysmal record?

Evasive tactics, purposely misleading rhetoric, and bogus crime stats.

The D.A.'s Dismal Record on Gun Crimes:

On the same graph, the cops also plotted the number of gun crime cases over the years that have been either withdrawn or dismissed by the D.A.'s office.

That resulted in a red arrow pointing the opposite way on the chart, as in straight up.

"And when you look at the withdrawn and dismissed cases, those are also steadily increasing," Outlaw said.

Again, the numbers told the story.

In 2015, when Seth Williams was D.A., the number of gun cases that were either withdrawn or dismissed by the D.A.'s office amounted to 17%. 

In 2018, Krasner's first year in office, the number of gun cases that were either withdrawn or dismissed was up to 31%. 

Last year, the number of gun cases either withdrawn or dismissed under Krasner rose to 42%. 

So far this year, the number of gun cases either withdrawn or dismissed by Krasner's D.A.'s office was all the way up to another alarming stat, that of 61%. 

To make matters worse, this wasn't a bunch of stats that the police department cooked up. A note on the graph shown at the hearing carried this note: "Conviction information comes from the District Attorney's Office Open Data Dashboard."

Krasner's Tap Dance Around The Facts

So when D.A. Larry Krasner came before the City Council committee, he had some explaining to do. 

But rather that admit the truth, our wily D.A. employed some deceptive rhetoric and bogus stats to get himself out of a political jam. 

In contrast to the grim picture laid out by the police commissioner, the D.A. claimed there was a silver lining.

[You can watch Krasner's act for yourself. In the video of the hearing posted on youtube., the D.A. comes on  the video screen just after the 3 hour mark.]

"Let me just hit one other high note  so that there is a fuller understanding about what's going on with some gun cases and gun violence cases," Krasner said.

"The news is actually quite good."

Krasner then told council members he was going to "give you a big picture on the numbers when we talk about the reduced conviction rate."

"If you just look at the slide," he said, you might say, "Oh my God,  what is happening in the year 2021?"

How can you have all these gun cases, Krasner asked rhetorically, "and not win anything?"

Krasner had a ready explanation -- who are you going to believe? The D.A., or that lying graph with the D.A.'s own stats posted on it?

About the stats from his own office that showed his dismal record at prosecuting gun crimes, Krasner said, "Well, that's not actually the case." 

"What's really going on is the justice system is not open," Krasner said. And "very few cases are being disposed."

Krasner is right about the city's court system, which is currently doing about 25% of the volume that it formerly did in pre-Covid times.

But nothing was right about the bogus statistics that the D.A. proceeded to roll out, for the benefit of gullible City Council members.

Rather than pay attention to that graph put up by the cops, Krasner told the council members, "These are the numbers to keep in mind."

There are presently "3,054 of these [open gun] cases listed as preliminary hearings," Krasner stated.

And "out of those 3,054 cases, 1,365 cases have already been held over for trial" by judges, Krasner said. "They're waiting for a trial, emphasis on waiting."

Out of those 3,054 cases, Krasner bragged, only "258 have been thrown out [of court] out of 3,054." 

According to Krasner, the cases were tossed because witnesses didn't show up, or judges didn't think there was sufficient evidence or the D.A.'s office simply decided to drop the case.

"That's about a 93% rate of these cases that are still on track" to go to trial, Krasner bragged to the council. 

The D.A. added that when those gun cases went to trial, they "are headed to a disposition that is very likely to be very favorable."

Krasner's Lies And Bogus Stats

But here's what Krasner didn't say.

According to the D.A.'s own open data dashboard, those 3,054 gun cases represent the total number of gun cases handled by the D.A.'s office over the past four years, from 2018 to 2021, that remain open cases. These are cases that have already gotten past the preliminary hearing stage and are headed for trial in the courts.

Krasner also didn't mention that the 258 cases that have been tossed is the number of cases tossed so far this year. 

Get it? The D.A. was comparing the total number of all the gun cases prosecuted by his office for the past four years to the number of gun cases tossed from just this year.

So that 93% success rate is a bogus stat that exists only in Krasner's head.

Some other problems: Over the past four years, the D.A.'s office's own stats show, a total of 6,706 gun cases have been charged.

Krasner didn't mention what happened to the other 2,652 cases over the past four years that have already been disposed of. 

What happened to all those gun cases? 

It's hard to tell because the total number of gun cases charged from 2018 to 2021 included many gun cases that Krasner inherited when he took over as D.A. in 2018; cases that stemmed as far back as 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The D.A.'s own stats show that over the past four years, a total of 4,466 gun cases were disposed of, and out of those cases, a total of 1,981 cases were either dismissed or withdrawn. 

According to the D.A.'s own stats, the gun cases resulted in 1,997 guilty pleas, and, when the cases went to trial, 137 verdicts of guilty in gun cases. Meanwhile, in other gun cases that went to trial, a total of 159 defendants were found not guilty.

So, from 2018 to 2021, the D.A.'s own stats show that his office either dismissed, withdrew or lost a total of 2,140 cases, for a conviction rate of 47.7%.

In contrast, from 2015 to 2017, the D.A.'s office under Seth Williams had a conviction rate of 65.9%.

Williams, a convicted felon, may have been corrupt to the point where he was taking bribes, but he was actually smart enough to let his assistants run the D.A.'s office while he was out smoking cigars and acting like a big shot at the Union League.

But as soon as he took office, Krasner fired 31 senior prosecutors. Then he replaced them with young lawyers who were largely former public defenders and social justice crusaders, along with rookies fresh out of law school. 

Next, Krasner gave his young ADAs little or no training, so most of the prosecutors in Krasner's office have no idea what they're doing. Is it any wonder why Krasner's office settles so many cases rather than taking defendants to trial?

Because nobody in Krasner's office is capable and experienced enough to beat a seasoned defense lawyer in court.

At the City Council meeting, Krasner wasn't through spouting his deceptive stats. In what he described as an attempt to "shift gears," the D.A. said he actually took a look at some recent cases. And out of the 78 that he looked at, Krasner said, "We lost four" and, "We won 74" cases.

The D.A. didn't specify what criteria he used for picking out his sample of 78 cases. But with a conviction rate of 47.7%, anybody else could have picked out another sample of 78 cases, and shown that the D.A. could have lost a majority of those 78 cases.

Or he could have lost all of those cases, depending on who was doing the sampling.

Krasner also wasn't telling the truth when he claimed that the majority of open gun cases "are headed to a disposition that is very likely to be very favorable."

With a conviction rate of 47.7%, that means that the D.A.'s office stands to lose a majority of those open gun cases.

When he called the hearing to order, City Councilman Kenyatta Johnson stated that "these hearings are meant to bring transparency and accountability to the agencies responsible for public safety here in the city of Philadelphia."

But thanks to Krasner and his purposely misleading testimony and bogus stats, the D.A. remains the opposite of transparent, as well as unaccountable for his poor performance in office.

At at time when people in Philadelphia are getting shot and murdered at record rates.

As of yesterday, the city had 435 murders, a 14% increase over the past year. At this rate, the city will set an all-time record this year with 568 murders. 

A History of Deception And Bogus Crime Stats

Sadly, Krasner's act at the City Council hearing was nothing new. In the past, Krasner has used misleading rhetoric and bogus stats to run away from his poor record in office.

On April 21, 2020, Big Trial documented how at a virtual press conference, Krasner claimed overall crime and violent crime was down when the actual numbers showed the exact opposite. Then, Krasner cooked up some new crime stats. He did it by taking a week of crime in 2020 during the pandemic and comparing it to a historical average for a week of crime in pre-pandemic times to show that crime was allegedly decreasing. 

On April 29, 2021, Big Trial documented how Krasner used the same evasive tactics when interviewed by Fox 29's Good Day hosts Mike Jerrick and Alex Holley. During a 12-minute interview, Krasner claimed that before Covid hit, his office had an "85 percent conviction rate for shootings."

Then, Krasner then trotted out another bogus statistic, claiming that over "the last six weeks," his office had a "90% rate of gun violence cases being held over for trial."

Jane Roh Gets Into The Act:

Last month, Krasner's office was up to more of its usual tricks, seeking to downplay the link between people who get arrested for gun crimes and then go on to commit murders.

As a Sept. 30th story in the Inquirer stated, Krasner's office "has long contended that there’s little evidence to suggest people who are arrested in Philadelphia for nonviolent gun offenses go on to commit shootings and homicides."

Jane Roh, Krasner's official spokesperson, was quoted in that same Inquirer story as saying that the D.A.'s office "believes the number of people arrested primarily for drug dealing who go on to commit a shooting shortly after 'would be similarly insignificant.' ”

On Oct. 1 on Twitter, Roh declared "here's data showing a tenuous at best connection between illegal gun arrests and shootings."

To back up her claim, Roh wrote that "only 16 out of 1063 individuals convicted of possession of a firearm without a license in Philadelphia since January 2015 were later arrested for a shooting."

But that's a bogus number. Going by Roh's narrowly defined guidelines, individuals convicted of possession of a firearm without a license in Philadelphia since January 2015 who were later arrested for a shooting," Big Trial found 33 such criminals, double what Roh said. Big Trial also found another 29 criminals who fell just outside Roh's narrow guidelines. 

Court Records Tell A Different Story:

Here are four examples of criminals who were arrested with a gun and went on to commit more shootings and murders, but they didn't fit into Roh's narrow criteria because the D.A.'s office failed to bring these cases to trial, or they diverted the cases, or they lost those cases:

1 -- Belton Lomax was arrested for a shooting and a murder on Sept. 20, 2021. At the time of his arrest, he had an open gun case from July 6, 2019. Just a month later, on Aug. 21, 2019, Lomax was arrested again on another gun charge. 

So what did the D.A.'s office do? On Sept. 18, 20/21, the D.A.'s office dropped the first gun charge against Lomax.

2 -- Jovan Dodd was arrested for murder and two counts of attempted murder on Oct. 8, 2021. He had an open gun case from April 9, 2021, plus prior drug and gun convictions. 

3 -- Maxwell Sorden was arrested on Nov. 27, 2019 for VUFA [Violation of the Uniform Firearms Act]. So what did the D.A.'s  office do? They gave hm ARD, or Accelerated Rehabilitative Disposition, which basically put him right back on the street again. On Oct. 7, 2021, Sorden was arrested again in a shooting case, and charged with aggravated assault plus VUFA.

4 -- Xavier Veney had three VUFA arrests between June 2019 and May 2020. On Oct. 7, 2021, he was arrested again for two attempted murders [one in 2018 and one in 2019].

The following criminals were arrested for murder after they were convicted on a VUFA charge of possession of a firearm without a license. The date of their VUFA conviction is listed. Their case numbers are also included in case anybody wants to look them up in court records posted online.

The criminals that fit Roh's guidelines have their names printed in bold:

1 -- Eric Woodard [MC-51-CR-0007166-2021]; VUFA in 2017.

2 -- Keith Phillips [MC-51-CR-0000199-2020]; VUFA in 2015. 

3 --James Clanton [MC-51-CR-0013120-2020]; VUFA in 2016.

4 -- Eddie Crespo [MC-51-CR-0010261-2020)] VUFA in 2016.

5  -- Kalif Tuggle [MC-51-CR-0014923-2017]; VUFA in 2015.

6 -- Anthony Brown [MC-51-CR-0001137/38-2021]; VUFA  in 2018.

7 -- Jose Colon [MC-51-CR-0022733-2019]; VUFA in 2018.

The following inmates were arrested for attempted murder and VUFA:

8 -- Hassan Elliott [MC-51-CR-0006741-2020], the accused killer of Sgt. James O'Connor, VUFA in 2018.

9 -- Khalid Jenkins [MC-51-CR-0009578-2018]; VUFA in 2016.

10 -- Richard Bell [MC-51-CR-00033134-2019]; VUFA in 2018.

11 -- Richard Holmes [MC-51-CR-0007782-2018]; VUFA in 2015.

12 -- John Ashmore [MC-51-CR-0031345/46-2019]; VUFA in 2019.

13 -- Daquan Thomas [MC-51-CR-0005298-2021]; VUFA in 2019.

14 -- Baahir Jones [MC-51-CR-0004352/53-2021]; VUFA in 2020.

15 -- Rafiq Whitmore [MC-51-CR-0018816-2019]; VUFA in 2016.

16 -- Charles Baxter [MC-51-CR-0028745-2019]; VUFA in 2016.

17 -- Albert Wood [MC-51-CR-0031112-2019]; VUFA in 2017.

18 -- Daquan Miller [MC-51-CR-0000108/09-2020]; VUFA in 2018.

19 -- Torren Hill [MC-51-CR-0000219-2020]; VUFA in 2017.

20 -- Joequan Milton [MC-51-CR-0000797-2020]; VUFA in 2016.

21 -- Christopher Luna [MC-51-CR-0001440-2020}; VUFA in 2019.

22 -- Quamir Boyd [MC-51-CR-0006675-2020]; VUFA in 2018.

23 -- Zaire Terry [MC-51-CR-0008576-2020]; VUFA in 2017.

24 -- Zhyjier Boozer [MC-51-CR-0006238-2020]; VUFA in 2017.

25 -- Khalaid Pugh [MC-51-CR-0013013/14-2020]; VUFA in 2015. 

26 -- Jason Simmons [MC-51-CR-0016200-2020]; VUFA in 2018.

27 -- Hassan Fletcher [MC-51-CR-0009390-2021]; VUFA in 2021.

28 -- Alexander Ellison [MC-51-CR-0011548-2021]; VUFA in 2018.

29 -- Ahmead Crawford [MC-51-CR-0012797/98-2020]; VUFA in 2018.

30 -- Michael Drayton [MC-51-CR-0014690-2021]; VUFA in 2016.

31 -- Matthew Bailey [MC-51-CR-0014699-2021]; VUFA in 2016.

32 -- Dominic Turner [MC-51-CR-0016201-2020]; VUFA (2015 in 2016.

33 -- Andre Presley [MC-51-CR-0000430-2019]; convicted of VUFA in 2016, and subsequently charged with aggravated assault. 

The next group of criminals were charged with carrying a firearm without a license, but the D.A.'s office pled the case to a charge of a felon not to possess a gun, so they didn't fit Roh's narrowly-drawn criteria:

1 -- Nehfey Scott [MC-51-CR-0030063-2019]; VUFA in 2015.

2 -- Amir Jones [MC-51-CR-0016051/52-2020]; VUFA  in 2019, arrested for two different shootings in 2020.

3 -- Von Jones [MC-51-CR-0028686-2018]; VUFA in 2017.

4 -- Jerome Martin [MC-51-CR-0022999-2019]; VUFA in 2018.

The following criminals were charged with possession of a firearm without a license, but the D.A.'s office pled them to other gun charges:

1 -- Maurice Purnell [MC-51-CR-0014839-2021]; VUFA in 2021.

2 -- Hyfese Richardson [MC-51-CR-0010844-2021]; VUFA in 2019.

3 -- Jorge Lopez-Montanez [MC-51-CR-0014699-2021]; VUFA in 2017.

4 -- Robert Taylor [MC-51-CR-0018978-2020]; VUFA convicted in 2017.

5 -- Daiquan Benson [MC-51-CR-0002071-2020]; VUFA in 2017.

6 -- Edwin Vargas [MC-51-CR-0000751-2020]; VUFA in 2016.

7 -- Symett Miggett [MC-51-CR-0014482-2021]; VUFA in 2018.

8 -- Joseph Bryant [MC-51-CR-0003363-2020]; VUFA in 2019.

9 -- Marquis McGhee [MC-51-CR-0005930-2020]; VUFA in 2018.

The following criminals were arrested with a gun on a VUFA charge and later arrested for a shooting or murder, whose cases haven't yet been brought to trial yet, so they also didn't fit Jane Roh's narrow definition:

1 -- Shaky Doughty [MC-51-CR-0019073/74-2019]; VUFA in 2019. He was sentenced on agun case after a shooting arrest.

2 -- Thomas Eanes [MC-51-CR-0018197-2019]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

3 -- Jeremy Harris [MC-51-CR-0024166/67/68-2019; VUFA arrest in 2019.

4 -- Nasir Byers [MC-51-CR-0008574-2020]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

5 -- Raheem Turner [MC-51-CR-0024462-2019]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

6 -- Shakley Dow [MC-51-CR-0015305/06/07/08/09-2020]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

7 -- Quadir Bundy [MC-51-CR-0020023/24-2020]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

8 -- Joseph Scott [MC-51-CR-0010644-2021]; VUFA arrest in 2020, plus aggravated assault.

9 -- Robin McAllister MC-51-CR-0014087-2017]: convicted of VUFA  in 2018, plus murder.

10 -- Jahir Drummond [MC-51-CR-0016099/100/101-2020]; VUFA arrest in 2018.

11 -- Kavon Lee [MC-51-CR-0006455-2020]; VUFA arrest in 2019.

12 -- Ahmad Thomas [MC-51-CR-0008336/37-2020; VUFA arrest in 2019.

In another example of figures don't lie but liars can figure, if the D.A.'s office expanded their tweet about VUFA cases to include not just shootings, but carjackings, gunpoint robberies, home invasions, assaults with a firearm, the numbers of repeat gun offenders would skyrocket into the hundreds.

Rather than limiting the stats to convictions post 2015, if Roh included all VUFA convictions from any year, all past VUFA arrests, all open VUFA cases at the time of the new offense, and people arrested with a gun as a juvenile, the numbers would swell to at least 300.

But the D.A.'s office never reports on their open data dashboard how many criminals that they charge for gun arrests are repeat offenders. 

So while people in Philadelphia are getting shot and killed in record numbers, the D.A.'s office continues to cover up its terrible record regarding prosecution of gun crimes. 

And the D.A.'s deadly act is being enabled every day by the journalists and public officials who continue to let him get away with it. 


  1. Thank you for real journalism. I posted this on Larry's page, Fox 29, Channel 6. Also the Inky since facts seem to escape them.

  2. And the Only is sleeping soundly like a drunken writer. No surprise about that!

  3. Thanks again for exposing their bogus stats. Please set up crypto donations! Bitcoin ATMs are everywhere.

  4. Council will eat it all up. Th lies. The stats. They are none to bright.
    Recall in November 2020 that council entertained that Drexel white boy from Philly Fight Covid who got the city's blessing to provide Covid related services.
    THEN! When the Black Docs Consortium made the scene, Council and Kenney pretended like it was someone else who approved all of this. The Inquirer covered it up, like the did the decades of child sex abuse at The Curtis Institute under the leadership of His Eminence Gerry Lenfest. They covered it up and moved on just that fast.....Shhhhhoooosh!


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